Is there a disconnect between the economy and the markets?

NDR’s Global Recession Probability Model is indicating just a 7% chance of global recession as of February. This is close to its lowest level in over a decade and down from nearly 100% in 2020.

The sweet spot for the model, with respect to global equities, is when it’s falling from the high-risk zone, usually depicting the robust early stages of a bull market. Even so, as also seen in the chart above, the low-risk zone has historically been associated with strong global equity market performance.

Other aggregate measures of global eco­nomic activity have remained resilient. The global composite PMI, a monthly proxy for global GDP, held in expansion territory for a sixth straight month in December. Although the index has edged down for two straight months, amid the surge in COVID cases, the index is still above its pre-pandemic level, indicating strong growth. 

Additionally, the OECD leading indicator for the global economy rose for an eighth straight month in December to its highest level since before the pandemic.

Economic data is also surprising to the upside by a significant degree, an indication that ana­lysts continue to underestimate the recovery. This suggests that the disconnect between the economy and markets may have more to do with perception. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for developed economies is well above its historical norm, while the index for emerging markets is hovering around an all-time high.

Marked by Sharp Divergences

The resiliency of these aggregate readings, however, masks sharp divergences among sectors and countries.  

The usually-steady services sector has fallen victim to the second wave of the pandemic. Growth has either decelerated or fallen back into contraction territory among most of the world’s economies. Indeed, our breadth measure of the services PMIs shows that fewer than half of the world’s economies had expanding services sectors in December. Economies that focus more on the COVID-sensitive logistics and hospitality sectors, such as those in southern Europe and some emerging mar­kets, have been particularly sensitive.

Transportation statistics from Apple and Google also indicate limited human engage­ment. According to calculations from NDR, only 15% of the world’s economies have seen driving routing requests return to pre- COVID levels. Google statistics that track destination show that recreation and retail and transit sites have been the most negatively affected.

These sharp divergences are also evi­dent among countries, and Europe is very likely in the midst of a double-digit reces­sion, as many large economies in the region have temporarily shut down retail shops, bars, and restaurants to help stem the growth of the virus.

China’s economy, on the other hand, is pow­ering ahead, ending 2020 with a year-to-year growth rate of 6.5%. Leading indicators and a low base from last year sug­gest that annual growth rates may surge to the double-digits in the first half of this year.

Although the U.S. suffers from one of the highest COVID case-loads in the world on a population-adjusted basis, Veneta Dimitrova recently reaffirmed our robust 4.6% growth forecast for 2021, buoyed by the prospect of additional fiscal stimulus.

Getting Better

There are bright spots in the global econo­my, many of which did not exist during the recession in 2020, supporting the case for economic resiliency.

Global manufacturing has staged a robust V-shaped recovery, with the global PMI reaching its highest level in December since February 2018.

Moreover, contrary to services, the recovery has also been broad-based among countries. Unlike the first lockdowns in 2020, the newest lockdowns have generally left manufacturing business open since the sector is more conducive to social distancing.

The pandemic has also increased demand for manufactured goods, especially many consumer-related goods, such as elec­tronics, home furnishings, appliances, and vehicles.

Global residential real estate has also ben­efited from the pandemic. Low interest rates, fiscal stimulus (which kept disposable incomes afloat), supply constraints (exac­erbated by the pandemic), and work-from-home policies which increased demand for larger homes, have contributed to a pick-up in global housing prices. There’s reason to believe that residential real estate will con­tinue to boom, but it will likely promote more wealth inequality.

Macroeconomic sentiment, especially about the future, has also reached new heights. Indeed, the Sentix Macroeconomic Expecta­tions Index rose to a record high in January. While this might indicate a peak in senti­ment, it’s historically not an ominous sign. In fact, expectations tend to top a median of 17 months before recession end, indicating that there’s more to go in this expansion.

Risks Abound

But there’s still reason to be jittery about the next few months as the global economy continues to be highly sensitive to COVID developments. The path of the virus as well as the distribution of vaccines and their effi­cacy, in light of new mutations, could easily present downside risks to the global econo­my. There’s also the worry that stimulus may be removed too early, especially in China and Europe. In the meantime, however, we at NDR, remain optimistic.